Ebook {Epub PDF} The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

 · By Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Ap. Before the discovery of Australia, people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely Estimated Reading Time: 9 mins. Cover Story: Part 2 Book Review/ Author InterviewRisk managers rely on ineffective and illogical www.doorway.ru's one of the main claims Nassim NicholasTaleb makes in his controversial new book, The Black Swan. Specifically,Taleb argues that quants focus onstatistical projection from common, ordinary events when unexpected, low-probabilty, high-impact events arewhat determine most profit . Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every /5(K).

Book Summary - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. The Black Swan is the 2nd book in the five-book series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on uncertainty. In this book, he explains the phenomenon of Black Swans, i.e. extremely unpredictable events that have a massive impact on our societies and the course of history. In The Black. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/ He Taleb, explains the three characteristics of a concludes this part with suggestions on how to black swan: It is an outlier that is beyond our distinguish between predictions that may lead to expectations; it carries an extreme impact, and positive or low harm outcomes (e.g., publishing because of human nature, people construct a a book.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory. Overview. The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.